Sunday Review - October 11, 2026

Here is how the week closed and what I'm watching next.

Where the indexes closed

The S&P 500 finished Friday at 7,811.54, up 0.59% on the day and 1.2% on the week. The Dow closed at 51,654.95, up 0.83% Friday and 0.9% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite ended at 27,366.17, up 0.64% Friday and 0.6% for the week. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,806.98, up 0.46% Friday but down 0.9% for the week.

How price behaved at the levels that mattered

The level that defined the week was Tuesday's record close of 7,818.93 on the S&P 500. Price set that mark Tuesday, pulled back two sessions to a 7,765.36 close Thursday, then rebounded Friday to finish 0.09% below it. That is the second highest close in the index's history, but it is not a new high. The Nasdaq followed a similar path and closed Friday under its Tuesday record of 27,599.79. Large caps carried the week. Small caps did not follow.

What showed beneath the surface

Participation improved Friday. NYSE advancers led decliners 1.65 to 1, and Nasdaq advancers led 1.38 to 1. The detail I keep coming back to is new lows. The NYSE logged 141 new highs against 183 new lows, and the Nasdaq logged 41 new highs against 209 new lows. Volume was 14.37 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 17.76 billion. An index near a record with more new lows than new highs and light volume is a narrow move, and I treat it that way.

Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors rose. Communication services was the lone decliner after SpaceX agreed to buy a nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio, and T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon fell between 8.8% and 13.3%.

Volatility stayed quiet. The VIX closed at 14.84, down 3.7%.

Rates remain the constraint. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday near 5.24% after trading as high as about 5.36% on Wednesday, its highest level since 2002. The 2-year finished near 4.79%. Stocks are pressing records with the 10-year above 5.2%, and that deserves respect.

Oil held firm. WTI settled at $91.85 and Brent at $104.72 as Gulf production shutdowns tied to Hurricane Isaias offset earlier relief around Iran. Gold was near $4,194 an ounce Friday afternoon, up about 1.5%. The dollar index closed at 102.23, up 0.09%.

The week ahead: what I'm watching

Monday, October 12 is Columbus Day. Stocks trade a normal session, but the bond market and banks are closed and the Fed's scheduled releases move to Tuesday. With rates not trading, Monday can be a thinner session than usual. I'll let the open settle before I trust it.

• Tuesday: Third quarter earnings season starts with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, along with Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth.

• Wednesday: September CPI at 7:30 AM CT. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report.

• Thursday: September retail sales and PPI at 7:30 AM CT, plus the Philadelphia Fed survey. Taiwan Semiconductor, Charles Schwab, PNC, BNY Mellon and Prologis report.

• Friday: Import and export prices at 7:30 AM CT and monthly options expiration. Travelers, Truist, Regions, M&T and Citizens report.

The levels on my screen: 7,818.93 on the S&P 500, the record close overhead, and 7,765.36, Thursday's close beneath. On the Nasdaq, the 27,599.79 record. On rates, 5.24% on the 10-year and the 5.36% high from Wednesday. On oil, $90 on WTI and $100 on Brent.

None of this is a forecast. It is where price is and what is on the calendar. CPI and the bank reports will move things, and I don't need to guess which way. Let the first reaction show where buyers and sellers defend price, wait for confirmation at the levels, control risk, and remember that cash is a position.

Doug

Educational purposes only. Nothing provided by Right Way Options constitutes investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading involves risk.